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28Mar
What Keeps You Up at Night?
Blogs / Articles
There can be many answers to the question ranging from “my health, my kids, my grandkids, our currently divided country, how to afford the cost of education, the rising cost of health care”, to name only a few.  I want to share an interview with Richard Orlando.

Orlando is CEO of Legacy Capitals, and Ned Dane of the Oppenheimer Family of Funds asks the questions.

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07Mar
China in the News
Economy

Have You Noticed How Much China Is in the News Lately?

If we turn the calendar back to January and February 2016, the U.S. stock market saw one of its worst annual starts in history.  China, with the currency and stock market that was quickly moving downward, caused much of the setback in the United States markets.  This is because China’s enormity and its global economic importance have moved this country ahead of the United States in its influence over world markets.

This premise was confirmed when, later in the year, the U.S. market righted itself at the same time that the Chinese markets rebounded.

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21Feb
Some Interesting Insights Thus Far for 2017
Blogs / Articles

As our nation and the world continue to watch the actions and react to the rhetoric of the new Administration in Washington, we have already witnessed some incredible activity.

From the resignation of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn to Kim Jong Un’s missile launch, we are witnessing daily tests – both domestic and global.

How is this influencing the markets?

  • Emerging market (EM) assets outperformed, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply during the last week of January, and U.S. value stocks underperformed a flat market.
  • Political uncertainty sent French and Italian government bond yields to multi-year highs relative to their German peers.  Half of the European firms that have reported earnings have beaten estimates.
  • Oil fell to a near three-week low under the pressure of growing U.S. crude inventories, but pared some losses. China’s PMI data showed expansion in both services and manufacturing sectors.

And what might be coming?

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15Feb
How the World Shops Is Changing
Economy

Recently, Capital Ideas shared the following information which I think you will find interesting:

By 2025, 4.2 billion people out of a global population of 7.9 billion will be part of the consuming class.

For the first time in history, the number of people with discretionary income will exceed the number of people still struggling to meet basic needs.

Here are some of the changes in consumer spending which is led by millennials:

  • Chinese millennials are “all about the experience”.  This includes going to the movies and increasing their travel abroad.  They spend considerably on-line for lifestyle items.
  • Another country positioned to benefit from the increased spending is India.  In the next 10 years, about 150 million new people will enter India’s workforce.  Highways, airports, and other infrastructure is expected to increase along with consumer spending.
  • The 80 million American millennials spend at least $600 billion a year.  They are adding to the success of businesses like Uber and HomeAway.

Consumer spending drives 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

We will watch for new investment possibilities based on this information.

We welcome the opportunity to share a cup of coffee and conversation with you.

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500

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07Feb
Are You Positive or Negative on the U.S. Economy for 2017?
Economy

Interestingly, a case can be made either way.

Because I prefer to end my blogs on a positive note, let’s first look at what might detract from or slow economic growth in 2017.

1.   The strengthening US dollar.  Since the November 2016 election, the dollar is up 4%.  It is predicted to increase by another 5% this year.  (Source: Kiplinger Letter 1-13-17)
Anyone want to go to Europe?

2.   Gradually rising interest rates.  This could impact sensitive sectors such as housing and auto sales.

3.   The uncertainty of trade wars.  If the president makes good on campaign promises, countries could retaliate by buying less U.S. goods.  Punitive tariffs are also a possibility.

Now let’s consider the positives.

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01Feb
Feeling Money Pressure and Stress?
Economy

The American Psychological Association
published a study called “Paying with Our Health”.

 

I found it to be especially informative; it also raised my awareness about the impact of financial stress in the lives of women.  It further increased my concern for women and money as I read about the relationship between financial stress and physical health.

Here are some excerpts from the article:

Year after year, women’s experiences with stress continue to be troubling. They consistently report higher stress levels than men do, and they appear to have a hard time coping.1 These patterns also emerge when it comes to their relationship with money and finances.

  • Women report higher levels of stress about money than men (5.0 vs. 4.3 on a 10-point scale) and are more likely than men to say they feel stress about money all or most of the time (30 percent vs. 21 percent).
  • Women who say their stress about money is high (8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale) are more likely than women who say they have low stress about money (1, 2 or 3 on a 10-point scale) than to say they engage in sedentary or unhealthy behaviors to manage their stress, such as watching television/movies for more than two hours per day (55 percent vs. 38 percent), surfing the Internet (57 percent vs. 34 percent), napping/sleeping (41 percent vs. 23 percent), eating (40 percent vs. 19 percent), drinking alcohol (21 percent vs. 9 percent) or smoking (19 percent vs. 7 percent).
  • Women who say their stress about money is high are significantly more likely than women who say they have low stress about money to rate their health as fair or poor (34 percent vs. 13 percent).

1:  Men n=1204; Women n=1864.

Does any of this fit for you or someone you care about?

If so, please know that the Resonate team considers it both our privilege and responsibility to hold the conversation about “Money and Stress”.  We have prepared multiple resources designed to create alternatives and fresh ideas designed to reduce financial stress.

We are comfortable engaging in these emotional conversations and recognize the importance of them.

We welcome hearing your concerns about money and are committed to sharing stress-relieving ideas designed especially for you.

Please contact us for a complimentary conversation.

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.

(513) 605-2500

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23Jan
Thoughts on the U.S. and International Bond Market for 2017
Economy

(The source of the following is BNY Mellon Weekly Fixed Income Market Commentary December 7, 2016, Investing Haven “Bond Market Outlook for 2017”: “Investment Outlook” Bill Gross, Janus Capital Group.)

There are currently two key drivers of the market.  One is the election of Donald Trump, and the other is central banks.  The banks are significant, because they are the largest holders in the debt market.

From the U.S.:  Interest rates increased one-quarter of one percent to 0.75% in December 2016.

From Europe: We expect the ECB to extend the current Quantitative Easing buying program.  (The ECB is currently buying 80 billion euros per month.  The expiration date is March, 2017.)

Why is this important?  It is important because increasing interest rates impact stocks, gold, commodities, and currencies.  Based on recent signs, rising rates have a negative impact on gold and a positive influence on the dollar and financial stocks.

As we work to define the impact in 2017, we will be watching the 20 year bond market (TLT) and what happens to other sectors when the TLT reaches amounts around the $120 level.   TLT is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the 20 year Treasury.

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17Jan
Expect These Campaign Promised to Be Kept
Economy

In my previous blog, I shared which campaign promises are expected to be broken.   This blog covers the ones expected to be met.

(Source: The Kiplinger Letter November 11, 2016.)
  1. Domestic oil, gas, and coal production will be more in favor. Drilling in new regions as well as offshore will be favored.
  2. He will push hard for more spending on infrastructure.
  3. Trump will try to overhaul financial regulations in order to boost bank lending. (Dodd-Frank is at risk.)
  4. The Trump isolationist stance will force European nations to spend more on their own defense and security needs.
  5. Trump is likely to rip up the Iran nuclear deal and issue new sanctions.


Barbara A. Culver

CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.

(513) 605-2500

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04Jan
Campaign Promises Most Likely to be Broken
Economy

In the November 11, Kiplinger Letter, we find the following ideas which I thought would be of value to you:

  1. President-elect Trump stated: “I will increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 4% a year”.  Kiplinger believes the 2017 GDP
    to be closer to 2.1%; in-part, due to the fact that fiscal change will happen more slowly than the president-elect predicted.
  2. There will be no wall built on the border between the U.S. and Mexico.
  3. Trump will find it difficult to create the relationship he wants with Putin.  Even though the goal of closer ties would be to defeat ISIS and end Syrian conflict, collaborating with Putin will draw great resistance from the U.S. military.
  4. Repealing Obamacare immediately.  This topic is very tricky.  The details will take years to sort out; nothing is going to happen quickly.

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.

(513) 605-2500

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27Dec
The Trump Election and Interest Rates: What to Do Now
Economy

(Credit goes to Michelle Borre CFA, Oppenheimer Funds; “Will Trumponomics Bring a New Interest Rate Regime?” and Scott Page CFA and Craig Russ Co-Directors of Bank Loans at Eaton Vance “Fed Delivers Continued Tailwind for Floating Rate Loan Investors”.)

None of the information below is to be considered a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any particular position.

The following stated goals from President Elect Trump could bring sweeping change to some long-held market views on interest rates:

  1. Fiscal stimulus in the form of corporate and individual tax cuts;
  2. Incentives to bring offshore cash back on shore;
  3. Increased infrastructure spending;
  4. Tariffs or taxes on imported goods which still cause these goods to be more expensive to purchase.
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