Interestingly, a case can be made either way.

Because I prefer to end my blogs on a positive note, let’s first look at what might detract from or slow economic growth in 2017.

1.   The strengthening US dollar.  Since the November 2016 election, the dollar is up 4%.  It is predicted to increase by another 5% this year.  (Source: Kiplinger Letter 1-13-17)
Anyone want to go to Europe?

2.   Gradually rising interest rates.  This could impact sensitive sectors such as housing and auto sales.

3.   The uncertainty of trade wars.  If the president makes good on campaign promises, countries could retaliate by buying less U.S. goods.  Punitive tariffs are also a possibility.

Now let’s consider the positives.

(The source of the following is BNY Mellon Weekly Fixed Income Market Commentary December 7, 2016, Investing Haven “Bond Market Outlook for 2017”: “Investment Outlook” Bill Gross, Janus Capital Group.)

There are currently two key drivers of the market.  One is the election of Donald Trump, and the other is central banks.  The banks are significant, because they are the largest holders in the debt market.

From the U.S.:  Interest rates increased one-quarter of one percent to 0.75% in December 2016.

From Europe: We expect the ECB to extend the current Quantitative Easing buying program.  (The ECB is currently buying 80 billion euros per month.  The expiration date is March, 2017.)

Why is this important?  It is important because increasing interest rates impact stocks, gold, commodities, and currencies.  Based on recent signs, rising rates have a negative impact on gold and a positive influence on the dollar and financial stocks.

As we work to define the impact in 2017, we will be watching the 20 year bond market (TLT) and what happens to other sectors when the TLT reaches amounts around the $120 level.   TLT is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the 20 year Treasury.

(Credit goes to Michelle Borre CFA, Oppenheimer Funds; “Will Trumponomics Bring a New Interest Rate Regime?” and Scott Page CFA and Craig Russ Co-Directors of Bank Loans at Eaton Vance “Fed Delivers Continued Tailwind for Floating Rate Loan Investors”.)

None of the information below is to be considered a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any particular position.

The following stated goals from President Elect Trump could bring sweeping change to some long-held market views on interest rates:

1. Fiscal stimulus in the form of corporate and individual tax cuts;
2. Incentives to bring offshore cash back on shore;
3. Increased infrastructure spending;
4. Tariffs or taxes on imported goods which still cause these goods to be more expensive to purchase.

Now that the election results are clear, this is what we expect to happen.

Until President-Elect Trump begins to reveal who he will select as Cabinet members and close advisors, the market may react negatively.  This is because the market typically does not like uncertainty.  This uncertainty extends from domestic policy to global trade and how other world leaders will respond to our election results.

Of course, no one knows how long this may last.

Hopefully, like the response to the unexpected Brexit vote, this, too, will be short-lived.

What we have done in anticipation of this:

For those of you who take cash distributions for living expenses, we already have between 6 and 12 months of your cash need escrowed.  Therefore, we will not be selling positions to raise cash in the near term.

Our investment philosophy is that we stay invested for the long term; we do not try to time the market based on daily events.

With that said, please remember that we have diversified your portfolio and that no Resonate client is 100% invested in the U.S. stock market at this time. Most Resonate clients are closer to a 60-70% equity position.  While we expect to see a drop in share price, there is no indication that any large U.S. companies will stop paying dividends due to election results.

Some of you will see this as an opportunity to buy quality companies “on sale”.

Also remember that many of you own annuities with guaranteed protected values which convert into guaranteed lifetime income.

Summary:

In the near term, expect volatility; if you find it agitating, listen to as little of the news as possible.

As always, reach out to us if you want to talk.

Until next time, live your purpose!

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500