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09May
Why Might I Want to Invest in Emerging Markets – 2 of 2
Economy

(Nothing I write is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.  This blog is intended for informational use only.  I give full credit to Krishna Momani, Chief Investment Officer of the Oppenheimer Funds, for the information in this blog).

If you missed Part One of this blog, may I encourage you to read it before Part Two?

As you will see in the following chart, growth rates in many of the largest emerging market economies have stabilized and are now trending higher, commodity prices have bottomed, and currencies have steadied, bringing inflationary pressures under control.

Next, as you will see in the following chart, China is successfully transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service-oriented economy.

The cyclical emerging market economic backdrop combined with still-relatively cheap valuations suggest that emerging market equities are poised to outperform the developed world over the next market cycle.

If you have questions or interest in learning more, I’d love to share a conversation with you!

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500

Source of charts: OppenheimerFunds, “The Case for Emerging Markets”, Krishna Memani, CIO
Disclosure:  These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment.  These views are as of the close of business on March 31, 2017, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.  Equities are subject to market risk and volatility; they may gain or lose value.  Fixed-income investing entails credit and interest rate risks. Bonds are exposed to credit and interest rate risk.  When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a fund’s share prices can fall.  Investments in securities of growth companies may be especially volatile. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and geopolitical risks.  Emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile. Eurozone investments may be subject to volatility and liquidity issues.  The mention of specific countries, regions, or sectors does not constitute a recommendation by any particular fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc.
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01May
Why Might I Want to Invest in Emerging Markets – 1 of 2
Economy

While there is certainly not a “one-size fits all” answer to this question, I wanted to include some interesting information on emerging markets.

This is a two-part blog.  My goal in writing it is to blend some history of emerging markets with current trends, which I hope you find interesting.

(Please note that nothing in this blog is intended as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.  It is meant to be purely informational.)

Krishna Momani, the Chief Investment Officer of the Oppenheimer Funds, writes:

“In the first 13 years of this century, emerging market equities outperformed U.S. equities by over 7% per year.  That’s almost 200% of cumulative outperformance.”

“The following three years were not as kind to emerging market investors.  Emerging market assets suffered from a series of macro headwinds including weaker global growth, sharp declines in emerging market exports, a collapse in commodity prices, falling currencies, rising inflation, and capital flight as U.S. monetary policy conditions normalized.”

Emerging Markets Had Been Underperforming Since 2013

Prior to 2017, emerging market equities experienced a prolonged period of underperformance relative to developed market equities.  A confluence of factors weighed on emerging market performance including weaker global demand for exports, a slowdown in Chinese growth, the end of the multi-year commodity and credit-driven boom, and tighter U.S. monetary policy.

In particular, the onset of monetary normalization in the United States, beginning in earnest with the tapering of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) asset purchases in 2013 and continuing with the first Fed interest rate hike in December 2015, resulted in a massive flight of capital out of the emerging markets and into U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

The tide now appears to be turning.  The cyclical case for emerging market equities is supported by the following:

  1. Economic growth is improving (in some instances, such as in Russia and Brazil, off of
    recession lows) and exceeding expectations.
  1. Inflation has fallen rapidly. Real interest rates are now positive in emerging markets,
    suggesting that this time modest U.S. interest rate hikes will not result in significant capital
    In addition, policymakers are better positioned to support economic growth.
  1. Emerging market equities are trading at attractive valuations compared to developed
    market equities.
  1. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to be a headwind for U.S.-domiciled international investors.
    Many of the emerging market currencies are already trading at steep discounts.
  1. The likelihood that a series of Fed rate hikes will derail the nascent emerging markets economic recovery is small.

While “they may be down,” Momani encourages us to not count emerging markets as “out”.  I’ll discuss the reasons for this in Part Two.

If you would like to talk about anything in this blog, I’d love to share a conversation with you.

 

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500

 

 

Source of charts: OppenheimerFunds, “The Case for Emerging Markets”, Krishna Memani, CIO

Disclosure:  These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment.  These views are as of the close of business on March 31, 2017, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.

Equities are subject to market risk and volatility; they may gain or lose value.  Fixed-income investing entails credit and interest rate risks.  Bonds are exposed to credit and interest rate risk.  When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a fund’s share prices can fall.  Investments in securities of growth companies may be especially volatile.  Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and geopolitical risks.  Emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile.  Eurozone investments may be subject to volatility and liquidity issues.  The mention of specific countries, regions, or sectors does not constitute a recommendation by any particular fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc.

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21Apr
What Is Reflation and How Does It Impact Me?
Economy
Reflation is a fiscal or monetary policy which is designed to expand a country’s output and curb the effects of deflation.  We are currently experiencing reflation policies in the United States which include a move to reduce taxes in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

(The balance of this blog is meant to be informational only.  Nothing is to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular investment positions.)

As the following chart indicates, the 10-year government bond yields are beginning to recover from a period of decline, which has lasted from 1983 until recently.

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14Apr
What Makes Women Breadwinners Different?
Investing
Part Three of a Three-Part series

If you have not read the first blog in this three-part series, “An Overdue Apology to Women”, dated April 7, you might find it helpful because it is applicable to this blog as well.

The first piece focused on how women clients are often discounted in the relationship with the financial advisor.  It resulted in my apologizing on behalf of the industry to anyone who has experienced this type of discriminatory treatment.

The second part in this series centered on how single women are often victims of “product-pushers” as opposed to professional advisors who are also fiduciaries.  See previous blog titled: “Are You Ready for Disturbing Survey Results about Single Women and Financial Advisors?”

This third part in the Women’s Series shares some important information on women breadwinners.

Who qualifies as a woman breadwinner?  Anyone who earns at least one-half of the household income and is also involved in the financial decisions.

Often, these professional women hold positions in middle management through executive positions.

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11Apr
Are You Ready for Disturbing Survey Results About Single Women and Financial Advisors?
Investing
Part Two of a Three-Part Series

If you have not read my previous blog, “An Overdue Apology to Women”, you might find it helpful because it is applicable to this blog as well.

The first piece focused on how women clients are often discounted in the relationship with the financial advisor.  It resulted in my apologizing on behalf of the industry to anyone who has experienced this type of discriminatory treatment.

While this blog continues on the same theme, the focus is now on the single woman as opposed to a member of a couple.

This includes the population of women who simply choose to remain single as well as those who may be divorced.

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07Apr
An Overdue Apology to Women
Blogs / Articles
Part One of a Three-Part Series

While the topic of this blog focuses on women, I am writing it to be read by both genders.

Why?

Because, as we all know, the woman in a marriage typically outlives her husband.  It is also true that, in general, a single woman has an extended longevity compared to a single man.
(Source: Vanguard, “Plan for a Long Retirement

Statistics reveal that 70% of the time a widow chooses a new financial advisor within weeks of her husband’s passing.  (Source: CNBC, “For Some Widows, Breaking up with an Advisor is Easy to Do”, Ilana Polyak, 10/11/14).

Why does this happen?  Among others, here are some of the reasons given:

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30Mar
4 Key Ingredients for Successful Style Investing
Blogs / Articles

Click Here for interesting, timely articles from Oppenheimer Funds including:

  • Sector Valuations
  • Pres. Trump’s Pro-Growth Policies
  • Earnings
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28Mar
What Keeps You Up at Night?
Blogs / Articles
There can be many answers to the question ranging from “my health, my kids, my grandkids, our currently divided country, how to afford the cost of education, the rising cost of health care”, to name only a few.  I want to share an interview with Richard Orlando.

Orlando is CEO of Legacy Capitals, and Ned Dane of the Oppenheimer Family of Funds asks the questions.

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21Mar
The Smart Use of Robo-Advisors
Investing

Robo-advisors create the opportunity for automated investment services.  While many investors incorrectly assume that “all robo advisors are created equal,” on April 15, 2016 in the Investor Junkie, Larry Ludwig shows that is not the case.

You have a choice between:

  • Minimum Deposit – Some firms you can start out with nothing and others require sizable amounts to start with
  • Annual Fees – Be aware of hidden costs and ETF fees
  • Asset Allocation – Asset allocation can vary quite a bit based upon your age, and the way you answer their risk assessment questions.
  • Account Type Support – No firm can manage a 401(k) directly, but some do offer guidance in investment selection.
  • Automation – Some services are 100% automated vs human assisted advice.
  • Tax Optimization – Services like Tax-Loss Harvesting.
  • Custody of Funds – Managed by you in which they give trading advice, or directly by the firm.
  • Management of Assets – Manage all your assets or just a portion.
  • End-Goal – Retirement only, or other goals (i.e. college education).

The author goes on to point out that the fees listed due not always include the fees from the recommended exchange-traded funds (ETF’s).

While Resonate is committed to staying current and competitive through technology, we also suggest that the smart use of Robo-Advisers is to “allow them to do what they do best” while acknowledging what they cannot replace.

We find that great technology combined with the opportunity for personal connection creates best results. For example, what happens when any of the following life events occur?

  • “Mom has just been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s… what do we do now?”
  • “I have an offer for early retirement complete with a severance package and need help understanding it.”
  • “My husband was just seriously injured in a car accident. How will we able to afford to keep the house?”
  • “We are trying to decide whether to lease or buy our next car. Can you help?”
  • “Dad just passed unexpectedly from a heart attack.  We have no idea what to do next.”

This is where compassionate understanding combined with professional competence and the human connection is truly irreplaceable.

We welcome the opportunity to share a cup of coffee and conversation with you.

 

Barbara A. Culver
CFP®, ChFC®, CLU, AEP®
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500

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07Mar
China in the News
Economy

Have You Noticed How Much China Is in the News Lately?

If we turn the calendar back to January and February 2016, the U.S. stock market saw one of its worst annual starts in history.  China, with the currency and stock market that was quickly moving downward, caused much of the setback in the United States markets.  This is because China’s enormity and its global economic importance have moved this country ahead of the United States in its influence over world markets.

This premise was confirmed when, later in the year, the U.S. market righted itself at the same time that the Chinese markets rebounded.

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