Why Might I Want to Invest in Emerging Markets – 1 of 2

While there is certainly not a “one-size fits all” answer to this question, I wanted to include some interesting information on emerging markets.

This is a two-part blog.  My goal in writing it is to blend some history of emerging markets with current trends, which I hope you find interesting.

(Please note that nothing in this blog is intended as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.  It is meant to be purely informational.)

Krishna Momani, the Chief Investment Officer of the Oppenheimer Funds, writes:

“In the first 13 years of this century, emerging market equities outperformed U.S. equities by over 7% per year.  That’s almost 200% of cumulative outperformance.”

“The following three years were not as kind to emerging market investors.  Emerging market assets suffered from a series of macro headwinds including weaker global growth, sharp declines in emerging market exports, a collapse in commodity prices, falling currencies, rising inflation, and capital flight as U.S. monetary policy conditions normalized.”

Emerging Markets Had Been Underperforming Since 2013

Prior to 2017, emerging market equities experienced a prolonged period of underperformance relative to developed market equities.  A confluence of factors weighed on emerging market performance including weaker global demand for exports, a slowdown in Chinese growth, the end of the multi-year commodity and credit-driven boom, and tighter U.S. monetary policy.

In particular, the onset of monetary normalization in the United States, beginning in earnest with the tapering of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) asset purchases in 2013 and continuing with the first Fed interest rate hike in December 2015, resulted in a massive flight of capital out of the emerging markets and into U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

The tide now appears to be turning.  The cyclical case for emerging market equities is supported by the following:

  1. Economic growth is improving (in some instances, such as in Russia and Brazil, off of
    recession lows) and exceeding expectations.
  1. Inflation has fallen rapidly. Real interest rates are now positive in emerging markets,
    suggesting that this time modest U.S. interest rate hikes will not result in significant capital
    In addition, policymakers are better positioned to support economic growth.
  1. Emerging market equities are trading at attractive valuations compared to developed
    market equities.
  1. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to be a headwind for U.S.-domiciled international investors.
    Many of the emerging market currencies are already trading at steep discounts.
  1. The likelihood that a series of Fed rate hikes will derail the nascent emerging markets economic recovery is small.

While “they may be down,” Momani encourages us to not count emerging markets as “out”.  I’ll discuss the reasons for this in Part Two.

If you would like to talk about anything in this blog, I’d love to share a conversation with you.


Barbara A. Culver
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500



Source of charts: OppenheimerFunds, “The Case for Emerging Markets”, Krishna Memani, CIO

Disclosure:  These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment.  These views are as of the close of business on March 31, 2017, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.

Equities are subject to market risk and volatility; they may gain or lose value.  Fixed-income investing entails credit and interest rate risks.  Bonds are exposed to credit and interest rate risk.  When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a fund’s share prices can fall.  Investments in securities of growth companies may be especially volatile.  Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and geopolitical risks.  Emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile.  Eurozone investments may be subject to volatility and liquidity issues.  The mention of specific countries, regions, or sectors does not constitute a recommendation by any particular fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc.

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The first piece focused on how women clients are often discounted in the relationship with the financial advisor.  It resulted in my apologizing on behalf of the industry to anyone who has experienced this type of discriminatory treatment.

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Special Client Appreciation Event – May 17, 2017
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You and a guest are cordially invited to a special event!

Michael McClary, Chief Investment Officer for Valmark Advisers, Inc. and Lead Portfolio Manager for The Optimized Portfolio System (TOPS) will be our guest speaker for this spring event!  Michael, entertaining and engaging, will provide important insights on the topic of “What to expect in the way of new legislation and policies from the Trump administration” and perhaps more importantly, how investment portfolios need to be positioned.

Michael will focus on current topics impacting investment strategies for both retirees and pre-retirees.   Please keep this in mind as you think about whom to invite as your guest.

We are providing two opportunities on May 17th – Please choose the one most convenient for you.


Cooper Creek Event Center

4040 Cooper Road, Blue Ash, Ohio  45241
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Plated Luncheon
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5:00 – 6:00 PM Appetizers and Drinks

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Please R.S.V.P. to Steve Read at 513-605-2500 ext. 214 or steve.read@resonatecompanies.com

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While Resonate is committed to staying current and competitive through technology, we also suggest that the smart use of Robo-Advisers is to “allow them to do what they do best” while acknowledging what they cannot replace.

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  • “I have an offer for early retirement complete with a severance package and need help understanding it.”
  • “My husband was just seriously injured in a car accident. How will we able to afford to keep the house?”
  • “We are trying to decide whether to lease or buy our next car. Can you help?”
  • “Dad just passed unexpectedly from a heart attack.  We have no idea what to do next.”

This is where compassionate understanding combined with professional competence and the human connection is truly irreplaceable.

We welcome the opportunity to share a cup of coffee and conversation with you.


Barbara A. Culver
Resonate, Inc.
(513) 605-2500

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